Climate-induced water variability poses a significant challenge to smallholder farmers in South Punjab, Pakistan, affecting their access to irrigation, crop productivity, and rural livelihoods. This study examined farmers’ perceptions of irrigation access in relation to changes in water availability, reliability, and distribution, alongside socio-economic and institutional factors influencing these perceptions. A cross-sectional survey of 300 farmers from Multan, Muzaffargarh, and Dera Ghazi Khan revealed that water availability had declined (Mean = 4.35, SD = 0.82), irrigation supply was unreliable (Mean = 4.20, SD = 0.89), and distribution was inequitable (Mean = 4.12, SD = 0.91). Factors such as small landholding (<5 acres, Mean = 4.31, χ² = 18.52, p = 0.001), low household income (<50,000 PKR, Mean = 4.28, χ² = 15.36, p = 0.002), limited education, and lack of participation in WUA were significantly associated with perceived water challenges. Adaptive strategies included reliance on private tube wells (66%), crop diversification (58%), adoption of water-saving irrigation techniques (55%), and engagement with governance mechanisms (45%). Binary logistic regression indicated that landholding size, income, education, access to extension services (Exp(B) = 1.81, p = 0.002), WUA participation, and climate awareness significantly increased the likelihood of adaptation (Exp(B) = 1.81, p = 0.002), while greater distance to irrigation sources reduced it (Exp (B) = 0.67, p = 0.005). The study underscores the need for integrated policies that enhance irrigation infrastructure, promote equitable water distribution, and provide institutional support to build resilience among smallholder farmers, thereby counteracting irrigation shortages.
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