Abstract

Climate variability is a major threat to agricultural productivity in Pakistan, especially for water-sensitive crops like sugarcane. The research determined the impacts of temperature variations and rainfall variability on sugarcane productivity in large sugarcane-growing districts in Sindh, Pakistan, based on a survey conducted by farmers. The survey was carried out in 2025 as a cross-sectional study, using a multistage sampling technique, with 400 sugarcane farmers from Badin, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, and Sanghar. The perceptions of farmers regarding climatic changes over the last 20 years were examined and confirmed using meteorological data. Regression and correlation analyses were used to test the association between climatic variables and productivity indicators, such as cane yield (tons/ha) and sugar recovery percentage. Findings showed that eighty-nine percent of farmers felt that there was a huge increase in temperature, and eighty-six-point five percent of farmers felt that rain had been more sporadic. The sugarcane production in 2021-2025 fell below 58.4 tons/ha (2005-2010) to 48.6 tons/ha; sugar recovery dropped to 9.3 percent (10.8 percent). Mean temperature had a strong negative relationship with yield (r = -0.623, p<0.001) and sugar recovery (r = -0.591, p<0.001). The grand growth stage was found to be the most sensitive period for farmers regarding climate. Popular methods of adaptation entailed changing the planting dates and the additional irrigation, but these methods were not adopted due to the high cost and lack of technical assistance.